LESSON 09 OF 13 · DEFINE WHAT WOULD CHANGE YOUR VIEW
A plan for false signals
Original schematic · For learning, not a market forecast.
Combining the five lines helps you describe a scenario, but agreement cannot eliminate false signals. Instead of searching for a flawless entry, state what you expect next and what would contradict it.
Write both outcomes
For a bullish breakout scenario, observe whether price closes beyond the relevant boundary, whether medium term balance improves, and whether Chikou clears historical price. For the failure scenario, identify a return into the range or a loss of the level supporting your interpretation.
Confirmation adds evidence and also takes time. An earlier approach and a later approach therefore face different trade offs. Test your rules on the instrument and timeframe you intend to use.
Read the illustration
The price briefly rises above the boundary at 120, then returns below it. The original bullish premise has weakened. A later upward cross does not erase that failure; update the scenario using the new structure.
Check your understanding
Your premise requires price to hold above 120. The next close is 117. What should your analysis record?
Reveal the explanation
That the stated holding condition failed. Apply your predefined exit or reassessment rule instead of moving the condition after the fact.
Further reading: Kojiro’s Japanese Ichimoku lesson 09. This English lesson and its diagram were independently written and created by Ichimoku Master.
